Joe Burrow Prop Projections

Rushing Yards

Line: 6.5 | Model projection: 14.2 | Pick: over

Model probability: 84.4% | Over: 84.4% | Under: 15.6%

Odds: -114 | Over -114 | Under -110 (DraftKings)

Edge: 34.00 | Edge pct: 34.0%

Passing TDs

Line: 1.5 | Model projection: 2.2 | Pick: over

Model probability: 71.0% | Over: 71.0% | Under: 29.0%

Odds: -170 | Over -170 | Under +133 (DraftKings)

Edge: 11.60 | Edge pct: 11.6%

Interceptions

Line: 0.5 | Model projection: 0.6 | Pick: over

Model probability: 57.1% | Over: 57.1% | Under: 42.9%

Odds: -120 | Over -120 | Under -106 (DraftKings)

Edge: 5.70 | Edge pct: 5.7%

Pass Attempts

Line: 36.5 | Model projection: 36.3 | Pick: under

Model probability: 51.1% | Over: 48.9% | Under: 51.1%

Odds: -115 | Over -111 | Under -115 (DraftKings)

Edge: 0.70 | Edge pct: 0.7%

Completions

Line: 24.5 | Model projection: 25.1 | Pick: over

Model probability: 53.3% | Over: 53.3% | Under: 46.7%

Odds: -127 | Over -127 | Under +100 (DraftKings)

Edge: 0.50 | Edge pct: 0.5%

Passing Yards

Line: 259.5 | Model projection: 260.1 | Pick: over

Model probability: 50.3% | Over: 50.3% | Under: 49.7%

Odds: -112 | Over -112 | Under -112 (DraftKings)

Edge: 0.30 | Edge pct: 0.3%

About the model

Projections from the VSN model (vsn-v1). Games used: 17. Last game in sample: 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000+00:00. Lines and odds move; check the live board before betting.

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