Patrick Mahomes Prop Projections

Rush Attempts

Line: 3.5 | Model projection: 5.6 | Pick: over

Model probability: 81.2% | Over: 81.2% | Under: 18.8%

Odds: +112 | Over +112 | Under -144 (DraftKings)

Edge: 35.00 | Edge pct: 35.0%

Passing Yards

Line: 221.5 | Model projection: 251.8 | Pick: over

Model probability: 69.8% | Over: 69.8% | Under: 30.2%

Odds: -112 | Over -112 | Under -112 (DraftKings)

Edge: 19.80 | Edge pct: 19.8%

Rushing Yards

Line: 14.5 | Model projection: 23.0 | Pick: over

Model probability: 67.6% | Over: 67.6% | Under: 32.4%

Odds: -116 | Over -116 | Under -108 (DraftKings)

Edge: 16.70 | Edge pct: 16.7%

Passing TDs

Line: 1.5 | Model projection: 1.6 | Pick: over

Model probability: 52.3% | Over: 52.3% | Under: 47.7%

Odds: +147 | Over +147 | Under -189 (DraftKings)

Edge: 14.10 | Edge pct: 14.1%

Interceptions

Line: 0.5 | Model projection: 0.8 | Pick: over

Model probability: 63.8% | Over: 63.8% | Under: 36.2%

Odds: -123 | Over -123 | Under -103 (DraftKings)

Edge: 11.70 | Edge pct: 11.7%

Pass Attempts

Line: 31.5 | Model projection: 33.8 | Pick: over

Model probability: 63.2% | Over: 63.2% | Under: 36.8%

Odds: -127 | Over -127 | Under -101 (DraftKings)

Edge: 10.50 | Edge pct: 10.5%

Completions

Line: 20.5 | Model projection: 21.4 | Pick: over

Model probability: 56.6% | Over: 56.6% | Under: 43.4%

Odds: -104 | Over -104 | Under -122 (DraftKings)

Edge: 8.50 | Edge pct: 8.5%

About the model

Projections from the VSN model (vsn-v1). Games used: 20. Last game in sample: 2026-10-18T20:25:00.000+00:00. Lines and odds move; check the live board before betting.

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