Sam Darnold Prop Projections

Rushing Yards

Line: 5.5 | Model projection: 11.6 | Pick: over

Model probability: 83.4% | Over: 83.4% | Under: 16.6%

Odds: -109 | Over -109 | Under -116 (DraftKings)

Edge: 34.10 | Edge pct: 34.1%

Interceptions

Line: 0.5 | Model projection: 0.9 | Pick: over

Model probability: 65.9% | Over: 65.9% | Under: 34.1%

Odds: -108 | Over -108 | Under -118 (DraftKings)

Edge: 17.00 | Edge pct: 17.0%

Passing TDs

Line: 1.5 | Model projection: 1.4 | Pick: under

Model probability: 53.5% | Over: 46.5% | Under: 53.5%

Odds: -175 | Over +136 | Under -175 (DraftKings)

Edge: -6.50 | Edge pct: -6.5%

Completions

Line: 19.5 | Model projection: 19.2 | Pick: under

Model probability: 51.4% | Over: 48.6% | Under: 51.4%

Odds: +100 | Over -127 | Under +100 (DraftKings)

Edge: 4.20 | Edge pct: 4.2%

Passing Yards

Line: 224.5 | Model projection: 222.7 | Pick: under

Model probability: 50.8% | Over: 49.2% | Under: 50.8%

Odds: -113 | Over -111 | Under -113 (DraftKings)

Edge: 0.60 | Edge pct: 0.6%

Pass Attempts

Line: 30.5 | Model projection: 30.9 | Pick: over

Model probability: 51.3% | Over: 51.3% | Under: 48.7%

Odds: -120 | Over -120 | Under -106 (DraftKings)

Edge: -0.10 | Edge pct: -0.1%

About the model

Projections from the VSN model (vsn-v1). Games used: 18. Last game in sample: 2026-10-16T00:15:00.000+00:00. Lines and odds move; check the live board before betting.

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